When will we achieve AGI?

2030(80% confidence: 2026 – 2047)Our combined forecast estimates AGI will arrive in 2030, as of December 14, 2025.

AGI Timeline Forecasts

Median year predictions from multiple forecasting sources.

Data sources: Metaculus, Manifold, Kalshi

Individual Forecasts:

Date of "weakly general AI" - Metaculus

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)
Source: Metaculus

Date of "general AI" - Metaculus

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)
Source: Metaculus

Date of AI passing "difficult Turing Test" - Metaculus

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)
Source: Metaculus

When will AGI arrive? (Manifold Markets Distribution)

From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]"

Manifold Prediction (Year)

Will AI pass the Turing Test before 2030? (Kalshi)

From the prediction market Kalshi. Shows probability (0-100%) that AI passes the Turing test before 2030.

Kalshi Prediction (% before 2030)
Source: Kalshi