When will we achieve AGI?

2029 Our index estimates that Artificial General Intelligence will arrive in 2029 as of May 1, 2025

AGI Index

An average of many different forecasts of AGI (shown below).

Metaculus (Weak AGI)
Metaculus (Full AGI)
Metaculus (Turing)
Manifold
Kalshi

Included in index:

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)

From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?"

Metaculus Prediction (Year)

From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]"

Manifold Prediction (Year)