Included in index:
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]"
Manifold Prediction (Year)
Kalshi Prediction (%)